New Year, New Government?

THE late Harold Wilson, a two-time (1964 to 1970 and 1974 to 1976) Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, once expressed the view that “a week is a long time in politics”.

Meanwhile, a Fulani friend gloomily informed me two years ago (we were discussing President Goodluck Jonathan’s unimpressive performance and wondering whether he would up his game before he completed his first term) that his people often say that one can tell by Wednesday what kind of weekend one is likely to have.   Both statements, though contradictory, make sense. Wilson’s implies that political outcomes can never be accurately predicted because anything – ie, all manner of unexpected developments – can happen during any seven-day timespan. The Fulani one implies that most outcomes can be predicted on the basis of recent occurrences.

Recent occurences

In other words, while Jonathan’s depressing track record to date suggests that he is much more likely than not to continue to disappoint me and the many other Nigerians who are disappointed in him at the moment, it is also possible that Jonathan’s image and/or performance will suddenly improve at some point in the very near future.

Any politician’s reputation or political party’s fortunes can (for any number of reasons) be mortally wounded or significantly enhanced overnight and within a matter of hours – never mind over the course of the five whole weeks that will elapse between now and the Presidential election in mid-February.   And it’s entirely possible for Jonathan and Buhari, his main rival, to suddenly become much more popular or much less popular.

In other words, even though I reckon that most Nigerians are tired of the Anything Goes Jonathan Administration and desperately want Change, I cannot confidently echo pundits who are confidently describing a Buhari victory as “inevitable” because Buhari might make mistakes before February 15 and because I don’t believe that its “too late” for Jonathan to regain a large chunk of the support he has lost since his 2011 triumph.

Jonathan and Buhari

Jonathan can still pull off a couple of last-minute moves that might maybe help him enormously. He can, for example, tell his wife to drastically lower her profile. He can, for example, sack Abba Moro, the Minister of Interior who presided over a botched recruitment exercise that led to many deaths. He can, for example, instruct Diezani Allison-Madueke and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Ministers of Petroleum and Finance, to stop coming across as shifty and deliver a truthful report about our oil revenues. And so on

But will Mr President quickly acquire the guts and wisdom to clean up his act and maximize the advantages of incumbency and maximize his chances of winning fair and square? Will he realise that it will be highly risky to rely on rigging? I doubt it!

Let me conclude by quoting Dele Momodu, a friend and media colleague who recently made the following comments in his column in another newspaper:
“The belief of most people I know is that neither APC nor PDP is perfect. They are readily dismissed as two sides of the same coin. Let’s stretch it further. Buhari and Jonathan both have their k-legs. But the former seems to have managed his own in such a way that people have come to terms with whatever is regarded as shortcomings while they have given up on any redeeming grace for Jonathan’s apparent weaknesses. In fact, Buhari in comparison to Jonathan is like having to choose between ulcer and cancer. Both ailments will definitely cause pain and discomfiture but the difference is still crystal clear.

Stunned wife

My Itsekiri brother stretched my thoughts further. He said he had asked his wife a question recently while discussing Buhari and Jonathan: “Darling, who among the two would you want to leave our kids with if we decide to travel for one week…?” The stunned wife took a deep breath before answering: “If I’ve no other person to leave them with than those two, I think I will pick Buhari. I know he might not allow them to eat too much and he may even ban them from watching their Disney channels but at least the kids will be safe and we’ll meet them at home when we come back.” C’est finis!

I think that Dele has very cleverly and very neatly summarised one aspect of the difference between Jonathan and Buhari; and I just LOVE the analogy about childcare and couldn’t agree more with Dele’s Itsekiri brother’s wife!

Finally, let me publish an email I’ve just received from Ifeka Okonkwo, one of my regular readers. Mr Okonkwo is reacting to the APC’s Christmas message to Nigerians, which I reproduced on this page last week. I disagree with Okonkwo on this occasion, but feel obliged to inject some journalistic balance!

“Donu, the minds of Nigerians are presently preoccupied about what will be the fate of our country following the outcome of the 2015 general elections and not about the grandiose promises contained in the Xmas message from APC!

They are just playing to the gallery, as we are not sure if they will fulfill even half of the promises they have made when eventually they win the elections.”